The Hogan Hype Machine
Doomscroll 7.23.23
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One Question
Thanks to everyone who answered last week’s One Question about fundraising gimmicks! It was a pretty open-ended question, but I did get some interesting responses! Here are some of them:
It gets down to ROI and the time involved. Being creative and within the law makes it all good
"Giveaways" aren't a new thing, if you think about it. A lot of time campaigns market merchandise as a "gift" for your donation. The commission concept is new, but could be a way to help donors feel like there's a real stake for them in the game. All that to say -- I've seen these candidates' COH numbers. Maybe they need to hang on to that money.
If it makes a difference it makes a difference ... every penny counts.
Do whatever you need to win
I respect that hustle, that’s for sure. But it definitely feels a bit scammy and not too legal?? I also think the precedent it sets — that you should donate to a candidate to win a prize or make money for yourself if they succeed rather than donating because you believe in them and want them to represent you — is a pretty dangerous one to set. One could argue that billionaires have been spending money on candidates in order to further their own interests for decades so everyone should be able to do that too… but that still doesn’t make a good thing.
I especially appreciate whoever said “do whatever you need to win.” That’s the spirit! But in all seriousness, it mostly sounds like you all are on board with whatever tactic it takes - all legal, of course. P.S. Does anyone really think a presidential campaign would launch a fundraising giveaway before running it forwards and backwards past every lawyer in a 10-mile radius? Just asking.
Anyway, this week’s One Question has to do with social media. A couple weeks ago I asked you all about how you all are approaching Facebook in 2023, and I appreciated the insights you shared. This week I want to know about metrics. What metrics do you measure and why? Pretty simple so please, friends, knock yourselves out!
Who’s Doing What
--Let’s Talk About Larry
Hogan, that is. Has anyone else noticed how the former Maryland Governor is resurfacing…a lot lately? Over the last several days, he’s been actively hyping the idea that he may run as a third party candidate for president. He was on CNN yesterday and the week before to promote the idea. I mean, he is seriously. hyping. it. Basically a one-man hype machine.
I have to imagine this means he’s absolutely going to launch a No Labels bid. I don’t view Governor Hogan as the kind of guy who would hype up his own candidacy this much only to bow out. It’s also interesting given the recent uptick in advertising spend by No Labels. In the last 7 days, they’ve spent about $53,000 on Facebook ads alone.
If Larry Hogan were running a Republican campaign for president, I would have wished him well but questioned what kind of infrastructure he has to sustain a nationwide campaign. What’s his list like? Who’s his base? What’s his lane and will it work? How will he fundraise? Etc etc. But if he’s running with No Labels, that kind of erases those questions, no? Something to keep an eye on, for sure.
--Oh, HI-O!
Who doesn’t love a good Senate primary? We’ve got some bangers already for 2024, that’s for sure. Ohio’s, for instance, got a whole lot more interesting this week with Secretary of State Frank LaRose throwing his hat in the rink. He followers businessman Bernie Moreno and State Sen. Matt Dolan. LaRose had a pretty decent rollout. I’m less than impressed with his website, and I really wish candidates would stop using footage of themselves jogging in their announcement videos, but that’s just me! (hat tip: We don’t need to see you work up a sweat to be convinced you’re a “real” guy just like us!). I somehow ended up on a P2P list because I also got the longest, most aggressive fundraising text from Team LaRose a couple days after he announced. Interesting strategy…
--Consider me impressed
Hung Cao, man. What a digital presence. Who knows if he has actually has a shot at beating Tim Kaine - or get through the Republican primary - but it definitely won’t be for a lack of an online presence, that’s for sure. His website is stellar. He’s promoting a short code. The announcement video is one of the best I’ve seen lately just in terms of how it a) grabs your attention right away b) communicates Hug Cao’s central message (“America saved my life”). He launched with a merch store, and this email subject line weirdly struck a chord with me (don’t ask me why).
And yes, I googled itsourgreatamerica.com. No idea what it is, but it redirects to bestamericanow.com
Also gotta give Team Cao a shout-out for rolling with it:
--Speaking of Virginia…
Scott Parkinson, one of Cao’s primary opponents, sent an interesting email this week that…I think is supposed to look like an official campaign memo? It was obviously timed to coincide with Cao’s announcement and hype Parkinson’s strength in the race (he announced forever ago). Interesting to leave Axiom logo at the top. It wasn’t a fundraising email, so it was obviously a shot across the bow in response to Cao’s big, splashy announcement. Still, I think there are probably better ways to about doing that…IMO. And according to my inbox history, it’s the first email I’ve gotten that came from Team Parkinson and not Scott Parkinson…which maybe tells you something. Anyway, this is a primary to watch!
2024 Roundup
A bit of a shake-up this week ::GASP::
There’s SO MUCH going on in the presidential primary digital arena, and rather than opine on it all (that’d be impossible), I’m going to do my best to include a round-up of things each week that caught my eye. Let’s get to it!
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson released a video reusing an ad from 37 years ago featuring an endorsement from Ronald Reagan himself. Watch it here.
Chris Christie-supporting Tell It Like It Is PAC is running a 60-second ad that goes hard after Donald Trump. Watch it here.
Mike Pence stood in front of a tractor and walked through some corn fields to film some direct-to-camera fundraising appeals. Watch them here and here.
Nikki Haley sent a rather provocative fundraising email that accused other campaigns of using donor dollars on spending sprees at Ulta Beauty and fancy dinners at Capital Grille. See accompanying WinRed page here. She also got into it with AOC on Twitter about Israel. See that here.
Several candidates chose to weigh in on the Jason Aldean controversy: Vivek Ramaswamy, Donald Trump, and Ron DeSantis.
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum announced he met the RNC donor requirement threshold to get on the debate stage in August. See the tweet here.
Who’s Spending Where
From July 13-19, Sound of Freedom Movie was the top conservative spender on Facebook ads, with more than $1.4 million dollars going towards ads promoting the movie. (FWIW my dad recently saw it and LOVED it). SOS America PAC spent a little over $230,000 on donation ads, and Americans for Prosperity came in third place with about $64,000 in ad spend. Rounding out the top five are The Daily Wire ($57,000) and PragerU ($51,000). Good times had by all.
At the same time, Doug Burgum for America was the top conservative spender on Google ads, with $100,000, followed closely by Vivek 2024 with $67.5 in ad spend. Kentucky Values PAC came in third place by spending about $38,000 ads attacking Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear. Trust in the Mission PAC spent about $30,000, while Defending Democracy Together poured another $26,000 into that Michael Hayden ad.
P2P
P.S. Pretty sure Frank LaRose wins for longest political text message I’ve ever received.
Industry Watch
Is the grassroots fundraising well drying up? Oof. This piece was hard to read. From Politico:
Candidates for office were practically swimming in grassroots money over the last few cycles, as politics increasingly went online and the money followed.
This cycle, the well is drying up.
A POLITICO analysis of federal campaign finance data found a dramatic downturn in small-dollar donations across the board.
…
Until this cycle, small donations had been rocketing upward, reshaping political fundraising. But the dropoff is unlikely attributable to any one factor. Republicans tend to blame inflation. Democrats say their followers are giving in other ways. Fundraising professionals point to the relative calm of politics compared to crisis-level political events that drove online donations in the past. One explanation seems to be the nature of fundraising itself.
“I have heard from folks on the ground in my district about fatigue with emails and texts,” said Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), who added that “really aggressive” fundraising campaigns can sometimes backfire.
Some fundraising professionals have raised concerns about decreased effectiveness of online fundraising tactics as voters become inundated with emails and text messages and campaigns have relied more heavily on email list rentals. At a minimum, the ease of communication creates more competition between campaigns.
My take: I’m not ready to throw in the towel on grassroots donors just yet - and I suspect none of you are, either. 2022 disappointments notwithstanding (it was a weird cycle!), I’m willing to bet donor fatigue will begin to lift as 2024 heats up. So….yes, I remain optimistic.
The Grapevine
I very much enjoyed this episode of the Business of Politics Show with Josh Klemons. You may recall that Klemons, even though he’s a Dem (but we won’t have that against him today!!), recently published a blog post analyzing the email programs of some of the Republican 2024 contenders. He had A LOT of nice shout-outs for Team Haley, fwiw.
Got a tip for The Grapevine? Job announcement? Job opening? Fav summer cocktail? Email ‘em to me at itsthedoomscroll@gmail.com
Last But Not Least
From the other side of the aisle:
Daisychain, a progressive tech company focused on building a “modern toolset” for political organizers, just launched a new product called Charms that’s pretty cool. They’re personalized gifs that include variable content that can be sent via text to supporters. The feature was unveiled at Netroots Nation (LOL MASKS) this week. You can demo Charms here if you’d like to see it in action. I did, and have to say, I’m impressed. Here’s hoping someone on the right figures out how to do this soon. Can’t be that hard…right??
From the other side of the tracks:
A new report about advertising trends caught my eye this week. TL:DR - Ad recall is pretty lousy (tell me something I don’t know!) Here’s more though, from Marketing Brew:
You might remember if you’re a marketer, but if not, it’s unlikely; most people only remember up to a tenth of the ads they’ve seen in the past 24 hours.
That’s one of the findings from market research firm Provoke Insights’s advertising trends report from this summer, a study it’s conducted several times since starting in 2020, according to its president, Carly Fink.
Thank u, next: More specifically, 41% of respondents to the survey, conducted earlier this year among 1,500 Americans ages 21–65, said they remembered 1%–10% of the ads they’d seen in the past 24 hours.
One more interesting nugget? 1 in 3 respondents (29%) said they rely on influencer recommendations when shopping. I’m telling you: don’t count our influencer marketing this cycle!
That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading! Did you like it? Consider forwarding to your friends!