Our gift to the Dems
Doomscroll 2.25.2024
Happy Sunday and welcome back to Doomscroll, your favorite newsletter for all things digital on the right! Let’s get to some scrolling.
One Question
Thanks to everyone who answered last week’s One Question about WinRed tips and tricks! It seems like everyone’s advice for how to WIN at WinRed boils down to one simple rule: Just do your best to stay on top of all the new features! With the pace they’re rolling stuff out these days, that’s definitely easier said than done, but duly noted. One other tip I found useful and wanted to share:
Use the Dynamic Amounts with the AB testing feature. Let’s you know if you’re helping or hurting and by HOW much you’re helping!
Solid. In terms of complains, I didn’t get any about WinRed specifically, which just goes to show (I think) how satisfied we are overall with the product. However, someone *did* call out a couple of bad pages. And while they were kind enough to preface their submission with “I pondered submitting this because it’s kind of mean” (made me LOL), I thought I’d list them here anyway. Full transparency: I’m editing out some of this person’s comments about a certain digital agency we all know… Not because I didn’t enjoy reading it myself, but because I <3 everyone here at Doomscroll and we’re all friends and I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt that sometimes the minimum viable product is the best you can do! So, if you’re reading this and recognize these pages as your OWN work, don’t feel bad! We’ve all published some gnarly WinRed pages in our day. Sometimes you just gotta get ‘em out the door. So without further ado, here are some not great pages that maybe we can all learn from:
This Tim Scott page. Why it’s not great: It only has one sentence at the top of the form.
This Marsha Blackburn page. Why it’s not great: It has no image, and small font.
And hey, if you disagree that these are “bad” pages, then HMU and let me know! I’ll print your defense next week (anonymously, of course!).
Ok, let’s take a break from the heavy digital stuff this week and do a One Question that’s 100% about political prognostication. Who do you think Trump should pick as his VP (assuming he’s the nominee, lol). Who do you think he WILL pick?
Who’s Doing What
—What’s in a refund
Ok so the Daily Beast published an interesting deep dive this week into the Trump campaign’s refund rate. Or should I say, non-existent refund rate. Let’s jump right in:
To date, the Trump campaign has reported only $1,400 in refunds since November 2022, according to Federal Election Commission filings—a jaw-droppingly low amount for a frontrunner presidential campaign. For context, President Joe Biden’s campaign refunded its supporters about $360,000 last year, with another $222,000 last month alone. In 2019, the year before the last presidential election, the Trump campaign returned more than $900,000 to its donors, racking up more than $11 million in refunds the following year.
But now, the refunds are essentially zero, raising the prospect of the former president’s campaign once again stretching the bounds of campaign finance law to inflate his war chest—and the public’s impressions of his political strength.
On paper, Trump’s refund rate is virtually impossible. His campaign has not solved this persistent problem of overpayments. His donors are, in fact, breaking the donation limits—dozens and dozens of them, according to the notices that the FEC sent his campaign after every 2023 filing.
Ok. wow. This seems like a big deal, even for someone who is no (and I truly mean NO) campaign finance enthusiast. This is what we have lawyers and campaign treasurers for. Anywho, for those who like me, need a little help this appears to be the TL:DR:
Typically, if a donor gives a campaign too much money, the campaign refunds the excess amount to the person, reporting it later in FEC filings. But when a donor gives too much to the Trump campaign through this joint committee, the campaign does not refund that person. Instead, The Daily Beast’s analysis of FEC data indicates that some reports appear to have simply vanished the original excessive amount altogether, even though the new amended filings show the exact same bottom line totals, down to the penny.
In short, the arrangement appears to swap out the refund process with a new batch of donations. It clearly requires more work behind closed doors, but the bottom lines remain the same, and at least to that end, it all comes out in the wash, so to speak.
So they’re not refunding the excess - they’re just moving it around? Now, I don’t know for sure if this is a problem or not. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. But The Daily Beast posits some speculative theories about What It All Means, and honestly they’re hard to ignore. The biggest theory is this: By “hiding” the true refund rate, the Trump campaign is actually hiding the truth about the strength of its donor base. Woof.
Trump’s army of donors is supposed to be indestructible. It’s program outmatched. Outnumbered. The Crimson Tide of online fundraising operations. Could it be starting to crack? The polls tell us his supporters are just as die-hard as ever, but we’re also seeing clues that online fundraising just ain’t what it used to be, which is a huge problem for organizations that came to rely on the strength of their ability to pull in $20 a bazillion times each week. Still, it’d be relatively easy for me to ignore The Daily Beast’s warnings if they weren’t coming amid a raft of bad news reports about Trump’s fundraising efforts. The AP reported this week that the Trump Operation spent more money than it brought in last month. The AP called it “alarming.” And just a few weeks ago, we learned that Trump and his affiliated committees spent $27 million on legal expenses in the second half of 2023. And oh yeah, the RNC also had a craptastic fundraising year last year.
So: Should we be worried about our ability to fundraise in 2024? Um, all signs point to yes. A couple weeks ago I ranted and raved about how the Republican Party has a branding problem and it’s hurting our fundraising numbers. I still think that’s true, but maybe there is something larger going on here. Maybe the average American is sick and tired of donating to political causes and feeling like they get nothing in return? Just a theory, mind you. But if small-dollar donors are closing their wallets by and large for Republicans, we’re just going to have to look elsewhere to keep those campaigns afloat (helloooooo events teams!)
One last thing: Even though this newsletter is called Doomscroll and I dwell on the negative like it’s my job, here’s one small, possible silver lining: Maybe (just maybe) digital teams can go back to doing things other than online fundraising 24/7. Can I get an amen? If the right doesn’t have to live or die on the strength of its online fundraising program, maybe us digital folks can start focusing on how to get voters to like Republicans again. Just an idea.
—We’re going to make this as difficult as possible, aren’t we
Republicans should be waltzing into the Senate majority this November. Instead, we’re having to contend with things like an Alabama Supreme Court ruling that essentially put the brakes on IVF. [insert groan]. Luckily, Senate candidates got the memo (literally) and went on offense to stake out some clear pro-IVF positions on Friday. Take a look:
Sam Brown (NV)
Bernie Moreno (OH)
Dave McCormick (PA)
Larry Hogan (MD)
Kari Lake (AZ)
Tim Sheehy (MT)
Eric Hansen (DE)
Ah. Reminds me of the days we used to use things like Thunderclap to get a bunch of activists to tweet the same thing at the same time. Those were the days. We’ve given the Dems their best talking point of the cycle, but our army of tweets is gonna stop them!
—Not totally sure how to pronounce his last name, but who cares?
Eric Hovde has entered the chat! I mean, Wisconsin Senate race. I’m already a fan, and mostly because he’s giving me major Tom Selleck vibes, which should go a long way with the suburban females.
Anyway, I really like his announcement video. I like that it’s only 30 seconds and he appears to be delivering the entire script in one single take. Nice. I also like that there’s no background music - just background noise that goes along with someone walking down a neighborhood street. I dig it. His website is SUPER simple, but I’m not mad at it. The awesome quote of the day at the bottom is…a nice touch, but I’m not sure how regularly it’s getting updated! Just saying. I love the gif action at the top of the sign-up form too. Cool. All in all, A+ execution. P.S. I’m 85% sure the credit on this goes to Push Digital, though I haven’t confirmed so don’t quote me on that.
2024 Roundup
This is where I make note of a few other things that caught my eye this week.
Trump and Hogan are putting aside this differences (for now). Read more about it here.
The VP race is heating up. Read about it here.
Someone’s having some fun with domains! ElectSandyPensler.com goes to a Daily Caller article about how he trashed Trump in 2018. Meanwhile, MikeRogersforSenate.com goes to a YouTube clip in which he says “never Trump.” Ah, fun times. h/t Foldi.
Who’s Spending Where
Between February 15 - 21, the top conservative spender on Facebook ads was AIPAC at $110,878. Their ads are mainly asking people to take a presidential survey and sign a petition to strengthen the U.S.-Israel partnership. The Foundation to Combat Anti-Semitism at $104,292. Newsmax Media came in third place at $65,000 in ad spend, while Donald J. Trump for President 2024 spent $63,000. Rounding out the top five is Liberty Defender Group, which spent $60,444 on ads.
During that same time period, SFA Inc. was the top spender on Google ads, with $170,000 - mostly on fundraising and display arounds leading up to the South Carolina primary. AFC Victory Fund spent $111,000 on a bunch of ads in Texas, while a group called Defending Democracy Together spent $98,000 - mostly on an ad that compiles negative things Nikki Haley has said about Donald Trump over the years. Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee spent $72,000 on ads, and SFA Inc. spent about $56,000.
P2P
Industry Watch
Every once in a while a social media platform rolls out a new feature or two that I think is worth noting. This week, I saw that Instagram is testing some new sticker features for content creators. One would allow you to replace the background of an image. The other is a “Get Orders” sticker. Both, I think, are cool and could have some good applications for campaigns - especially the “get orders” one. Gotta hawk that merch!
Anyway, read more about them here.
The Grapevine
Speaking of Dems, one of my favs flagged this for me on Twitter earlier this week. Super weird! (Thanks Josh!)
I hope Nikki’s social media staffer survived the subsequent heart attack.
Got a tip for The Grapevine? Job announcement? Job opening? Fav brownie recipe? Email ‘em to me at itsthedoomscroll@gmail.com
Last But Not Least
From the other side of the aisle:
This week we learned about President Biden’s plan to email thousands of Americans to tell them their student loans had been forgiven. Just so they know who to credit for transferring their debt to taxpayers. :) Anywho, nothing spectacular about sending an email, but I did appreciate their inclusion of a CTA that asks recipients “share what this relief means to you.” That kind of CTA is good and I’m probably gonna use it too sometime in the near future. Just sayin’.
Also, Katie Porter is hawking her email list at $15,000, starting at the low, low price of $15,000. Interesting move. Politico has details.
From the other side of the tracks:
Time Magazine has profile YouTube God Mr. Beast. Read it here if you like. I skimmed it, as I am wont to do in my never-ending search for video pro-tips. There weren’t really any, but a few paragraphs in he said something that caught my eye. Content creation is a “brutal” business. And just for that, I want to say: I see you, Mr. Beast. Even for the God Himself, the content churn and burn is tough and if that doesn’t give you digital young’ins some hope I don’t know what will!
That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading! Did you like it? Consider forwarding to your friends!