It's a Game Changer, Alright
Doomscroll 5.14.23
Happy Mother’s Day 💐
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Heads-up: This is going to be a slightly shorter version of Doomscroll. My toddler and I both got hit in the latter half of the week with what I’m now referring to as The Great Stomach Bug of 2023. It hit us like a ton of bricks. Listen, I know I throw around cliches a lot but this time I really mean it! It seriously cramped my style and so this week’s Doomscroll is going to be maybe not as fluffy as it normally is. The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh. Please also pause for a moment of silence for my bathroom floor. It also, has not yet gotten over the trauma it experienced during TGSB of ‘23.
Too much?
One Question
Thanks to everyone who answered last week’s One Question about whether Doomscroll should be on Twitter. ::drumroll::
The people have spoken: 70% of you said yes and who am I to deny the people what they want? So here you go - Doomscroll is on Twitter! Please give me a follow here.
This week’s One Question is about George Santos. Dude is THE WORST, and he’s now using WinRed to fundraise off of being indicted and charged with federal crimes. Seeing that not only made me cringe, but made me wonder: Should George Santos still have access to WinRed? Look, I’m not trying to start anything here, but maybe someone who’s accused of taking campaign donations and using them to buy designer suits shouldn’t have access to the Republican fundraising platform. I get WinRed is all about helping Republicans fundraise as much as possible, but at what point do we have a duty to protect the donor? Just a question I’m asking. So what do you all think? Should George Santos be kicked off WinRed?
Who’s Doing What
--WTF, Tuck
I really thought I was going to be able to get away with not writing about the Tucker Carlson/Fox News stuff. Cable TV is not my beat, yo! But then he had to go and announce he’s moving his content to Twitter. Silly me. Now it is my problem - and yours too, for that matter. Were you skeptical about spending advertising dollars on Twitter this cycle? (Hi, it’s me!). Better start re-evaluating those media budgets ASAP. We still don’t know what it actually means for Tucker to be on Twitter, or what it’ll look like in practice. But we do know a Tucker Twitter Show means lots and lots of new eyeballs on the platform - eyeballs that are probably, very mostly likely Republican voters. Exhibit A: mi padre, who I asked point blank via text a few days ago if this latest Tucker news meant he would be getting on the platform. My dad, who is 62 and has only ever voted Republican, responded immediately with “most likely, yes.” He then followed it up with “It’s not what I had ever planned to do before now.” The Boomers are coming.
There you have it, folks. Like I said: start re-evaluating those media budgets. I don’t want to overstate this, but any Tucker/Twitter partnership is a game changer for EVERYONE. I said it.
--KY Horse Race
Who doesn’t love a good Primary Day???? I’ve written about the Kentucky gubernatorial primary quite a bit in the last few weeks, and yes, all signs still mostly point to a race that’s going to come down to either Daniel Cameron or Kelly Craft. I’ll leave the predictions to smarter people who get paid to do that kind of thing. Politico had a pretty good rundown earlier this week. If Craft does pull out a win, it’ll be because she spent big. What’s more, her closing message seems to be all about establishing herself as a Trump-like, anti-establishment, political outsider. While attacking Cameron, she even goes after Sen. Mitch McConnell as a “career politician who would rather follow than lead,” which is an interesting argument to make about the Senate Minority Leader. I’ll just leave it at that. Cameron, on the other hand, is closing with a spot about how he’s taken the Biden Administration to court as Attorney General. Two different approaches. Two different strategies. Primary Day can’t get here soon enough.
One thing I will point out - since I’m always looking for things to point out - is that Cameron is promoting his SMS short code all over the place right now in his GOTV content. Weird, seeing as how I opted into his list back in January and haven’t gotten anything from the short code since! 🤷♀️ Maybe they sussed out I’m not actually a Kentucky voter?
One other thing - I would like to apologize to Eric Deter for not writing about his campaign in Doomscroll until now. Look, the man obviously loves Kentucky, and I obviously appreciate a 3-minute announcement video that doesn’t put the candidate on screen until 1:48 (it literally kills me). On the flip side, do I enjoy a candidate who deploys memes from time to time, makes an effort to engage with his audience, and puts an issues list on his website’s homepage that makes my CVS receipts look like tiny nose hairs? Let’s say yes. A for effort, Eric Deter.
--Is He Or Isn’t He?
Ah, the age-old question: Is he or isn’t he running for president? With most people, it’s pretty obvious. With former GOP Rep. Will Hurd? Not so much. He’s running digital ads that make it seem like he’s gearing up for something, but what’s his angle? What’s his constituency? If anyone has any insight, please let me know. Anyway, one of his ads about gun rights got my attention. It’s a quick vertical video that highlights how he flipped on gun control. He actually uses the word “flips,” which last time I checked, had a negative connotation in the political messaging world. He’s literally calling himself a flip-flopper and I don’t know how that sells with GOP primary voters. The ad is being shown to viewers in Texas, California, Utah, Nevada, Minnesota, Iowa, and a handful of others in the northeast and southeast. It’s all very strange. Will Hurd - you are a mystery to me.
--The Other 2023 Race
Mississippians will be going to the polls as well this November to choose their governor for the next four years. Incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is running for re-election against a presumptive Democratic nominee in Brandon Pressley (yes, he’s apparently related to Elvis). Anyway, what’s slightly more interesting at the moment is the Lt. Governor’s race. Incumbent Delbert Hosemann (what a name!) is being primaried from the right by State Sen. Chris McDaniel. Yes, that Chris McDaniel. But Hosemann isn’t taking the challenge quietly. He’s currently spending on Facebook ads and is even in the top 10 advertisers in Mississippi right now. His ads play up his conservative credentials, and he’s running a 30-second spot that hits McDaniel for saying he’s not sure if he would have voted for Hurricane Katrina relief.
--Make #VekHead Happen
Vivek Ramaswamy got some nice coverage in Politico this week. This nugget in particular caught my eye:
The roughly $1 million that Ramaswamy has spent on ads so far in the Republican primary trails only the super PACs of DeSantis and Trump, which have each dropped $8 million to $10 million on television. But nearly half of Ramaswamy’s investment in advertising, and more than any other candidate, according to AdImpact, has gone to ads on streaming television platforms — a sign that Ramaswamy is targeting a younger demographic than traditional cable and broadcast viewers.
Great move by the Ramaswamy team. Also apparently #VekHead is a thing on Twitter.
Fave It
This week’s FAVE IT tweet comes from Apex Strategies’ John Hall - with a shoutout to Startup Caucus’ Eric Wilson. To read more about what John is referencing, go here and check out the research from Center for Campaign Innovation.
Thanks, John!
Who’s Spending Where
From May 4 - May 10, the top conservative spender on Facebook ads was Sound of Freedom, with roughly $176,000. FIRE came in second with $94,000, followed by The Daily Wire with $84,000. Pretty standard. Proud Patriots came in fourth place with all its nicely bizarre Republican merch - including a new-ish Disney World-themed shirt with “DeSantis World” on it. Fifth place was American Action Network, which spent a little over $40,000 on a BUNCH of different ads. Some hit Biden on the border crisis; some hit random Dem lawmakers on energy costs. Some are thanking Republicans for “making life more affordable.” They’re all over the place.
American Action Network was the top spender on Google ads for the second week in a row. They’ve added in newSearch ads around the border crisis and ending of Title 42. Never Back Down PAC is in second place. They have a 30-second spot called “Steel” that they’re targeting to places like Columbia, South Carolina and Des Moines, Iowa. (Side note: each ad includes state-specific imagery around the 8-second mark, which is a really, really nice attention to detail.) Third place goes to Prager University Foundation, while fourth places goes One Person One Vote and their ad defending Speaker Jason Stephens in Ohio. Rounding out the top five is Vivek 2024.
P2P
The Grapevine
Bullpen Strategy Group is hiring a VP of Digital Strategy
Yours truly was quoted in Friday’s edition of FWIW. Read it and subscribe! And if you think I’m wrong about anything I said, let me know!
Got a tip for The Grapevine? Job announcement? Job opening? Fav gatorade flavor? Email ‘em to me at itsthedoomscroll@gmail.com
That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading! Did you like it? Consider forwarding to your friends!